In the early 1990s, and I can’t quite remember what the circumstances were – maybe a Parliamentary Committee – anyways, I had been called as an expert to introduce a brief on Québec’s grain industry. I delivered my usual speech, which addressed Québec’s positive potential but noted that prices paid to producers would undoubtedly remain weak for the next few years, thus limiting development. When compared to demand, there was great production capacity throughout the world, and it would be best to wait until supply exceeded demand. End of speech.

“Thank you Mr. Lafleur for your brilliant presentation”, stated the Committee President who was obviously unconvinced. Somewhat disconcerted, I gathered up my things and proceeded towards the back of the room where I waited for the next speaker.

I didn’t know who the man taking place at the microphone was, nor had I ever seen him before. But based on his appearance – fortyish, chin whiskers, college issue suit – he had the look of your basic neighbourhood militant, which is to say that he specialized in nothing but was outraged by everything.

As soon as he had touched the mike, Mr. Citizen of the year denounced the inherent naivety of my dissertation. In his opinion, the next few years would instead be marked by an unprecedented food shortage. In a determined voice, he quoted the Lester Brown report rather profusely, and declared that world grain production would be far below our needs and we should expect a spectacular rise in the price of grain in the years to come.

Before I go any further, may I ask if you know Lester Brown? No? Then, to make a long story short, professor Brown is an ex-American agricultural producer (tomatoes), a decent fellow in his sixties, who studied in the most prestigious universities and presides over the World Watch Institute in Washington, a serious-minded and very credible organization. Ten years ago, in a brief that had caused quite a bit of tumult in the agricultural world, he predicted that the world would be engulfed by an unprecedented crisis, a food shortage.

What’s happened since that famous prediction? Nothing, absolutely nothing. The markets remained quiet, in spite of their nervousness. There were, of course, some ups and downs here and there, but on the whole, grain prices continued to stagnate. Bottom line was that just like a lot of other experts at that time, our reputed professor Brown had underestimated the production capacity of grain producers.

Ten years later, Brown is back at it again. His new and more voluminous report was published last March 10, it basically reiterates the same themes: China consumes more than it produces, its grain stocks are at dangerously low levels and the country will have to import tons and tons of grains. With 120 billion dollars in trade surplus, it has the means to realize its ambitions, which may push grain and food prices to unparalleled heights. Wow!

Although I’m still a little sceptical – we greatly underestimate the production potential of Brazil and Eastern Europe – I will admit that I give credence to much of the professor’s analysis. Even if we don’t consider China, which in itself constitutes a challenge, the world grain industry is in a weakened state. Stocks are low and that’s disquieting. And with all these unpredictable climatic disturbances, price shocks are indeed very probable in the next few years.

Finally, that militant with the chin whiskers may not have been so wrong after all. And should he be reading this, I invite him to join me for a drink! Because, after all, it’s not everyday that we can find something to agree on.