I'd like to share a few numbers with you to help you better understand the situation. At $400 for one ton of wheat, the price of grain has reached an unprecedented high, one never before seen by economists or any one else for that matter. And that’s not small potatoes. Grain stocks are at their lowest recorded level ever. Should a serious drought affect two or three strategic areas, the world’s stock markets would be propelled into the stratosphere!

Even more spectacular is the turn around of agricultural prices, which had been long been trending down. As for the rest of the world, it seems that the demand for agricultural products has exceeded supply. China, now richer than ever, is tired of eating rice 24/7. And now Americans are devout believers in corn ethanol. The result: for the first time in 30 years demand is ahead of supply and agricultural prices are actually rising.

Are we witnessing a flash in the pan effect or is this a long term movement? We have reason to wonder since, for as long as anyone can remember, producers have had a bad habit of reacting with quasi-religious fervour at the feeblest price increases. They get beside themselves with joy: not only do they start pulling out marijuana plants from their fields, but they are seeding everything in sight – rocky soil in Charlevoix (!), trenches and pits, rented land… In spite of this excessive dedication, it looks like this time the rising cycle may be here for a while.

Of course, you say, but what about Brazil? What can I say? They have great agricultural power but are unable to fully exploit its huge potential: lack of passable roads, no infrastructure to speak of, broken down and patched up equipment, corrupt civil servants, violence in the streets. Truth be told, it will take years before this country is ready to take on the role of agricultural giant.

And the United States? They are huge, productive and intimidating. But the land that is currently being returned to farming is not as fruitful and is more sensitive to weather variations. Furthermore, oil-based fertilizer has become expensive, and this is slowing things down considerably. The same goes for Europe, where their surprising productivity is being delayed due to the visceral opposition to GMOs.

What about science and biotechnology? Nothing really spectacular there either. I was recently in St-Louis to see the Monsanto installations. Very impressive. And with a yearly budget of $715 million dedicated to research, they have the means to change the world. However, these scientists don’t have a lot of tricks up their sleeves: there are some plant varieties that require less pesticides – which is a good thing – others are more resistant to drought, but there are no ground-breaking discoveries that will revolutionize agriculture over the next ten years.

And because of increased demand and a rather shy supply, it is thought that the prices obtained by American farmers this year will be 50% higher than the average of the past ten years. Good news for Quebec producers whose revenues tend to follow that of our US neighbours, minus the exchange rate. Our grain farmers are already seeing the advantages of this conjuncture; pork producers should eventually see the light at the end of the tunnel, once cyclical adjustments are over.

Consumers all over the world are starting to feel the inconveniences of this incredible rise in prices. In Africa and in other misery-ridden areas of the world, where 80% of income is set aside for food, this inflation will produce a devastating outcome. Talk about high anxiety! However, this increase will only have very limited effects on wealthier countries because the prices paid to producers represent, on average, a mere 20% of the total cost and that the available income set aside for food is low – barely 4%.

But all this doesn’t mean that we’re not already hearing a low hum of displeasure, the grumblings of rich citizens who have never suffered from a food shortage. Having long enjoyed the fruits of productivity and the hard labour of agricultural producers, the relationship of strength seems to have turned around. Tough! At least for the time being; looks like those who feed the world will be better paid from now on. And that, my friends, is poetic justice.