I must have seemed a little lost in last month’s article – you know, the one about my crop of oats – many of you were kind enough to come to my rescue and share your own stories of compassion. Allow me to reassure you: just like all farmers (whom I greatly admire), I will continue production as long as I can.

Do you mind if, this month, I talk about the farming economy? Although I sense that you might not be as attentive, I also don’t want to displease the editor-in-chief who insisted I write a real article, one that would be useful and serve her magazine well.

So here goes… For the past three years, the world has consumed more that it has produced. Farm stocks have shrunk far below what is considered a critical level. The general consensus was that farm prices would continue to rise, from that point on, speculators sensed something good. For the first time in 30 years food riots broke out all over the planet.

As usual, agricultural producers reacted to this new pricing trend and they worked even longer and harder. Haggle a little here, quibble a little there and still the wheat harvest of 2008 was some 9% higher than in 2007! All grain productions combined – including corn and soya – a 4% increase. An unbelievable feat!

What about 2009? Experts are categorical: it’s a go for yet another record season. As long as there is no drought or flood, yin or yang, fling or flang, wheat production will increase by 11% next year. Record harvests are in the forecast.

Is production really catching up to consumption? Not at all. The craving for meat is insatiable in China and India – and Obama’s America still wants its corn ethanol – which means that these Crosby-like harvests will barely feed demand. Prices may not be as appealing but they won’t go back to the abysmal levels seen over the past twenty years You are saying to yourself: Yeah but… what about the economic crisis? I hear you. What about the economic crisis? The media has been predicting the end of the world as we know it; won’t it affect the agricultural world? First, let’s remember one important thing: there will not be a 1930’s style depression. Over the years, government has learned what to do to in the event of such possibilities. They’ve figured out how to avoid the crash: lots of cash and greater market liberalization. With the United States digging into its deficit, China with its huge financial reserves together with the European Union, they will continue to intervene to avert the domino effect. The automotive industry will be rescued and banks will be bailed out.

However, the upcoming year will be a hard one. We’ll be seeing the biggest contraction of consumer spending ever experienced over the past 50 years! Some sectors will suffer immensely. The forest industry will pursue its hellish descent. Construction and renovation will fall flat. Computer manufacturers, restaurant owners and bankers will be hit hard. Our future social landscape is filled with multiple bankruptcies and massive layoffs.

The good news: inflation will no longer be a threat, there will be an abundance of labour, interest rates will drop and the price of oil will be relatively low. Obviously, consumers won’t be eating out as often nor will they have the same eating habits. Potatoes, chicken, milk and pork will be the new “in” foods, fine cheeses and highly processed foods will lose popularity. Let’s not forget that a slightly weaker dollar will help our pork industry.

In short, with the exception of a few isolated incidents, albeit catastrophic and dramatic, our industry should survive unless… Unless the WTO plays a few tricks on us and Mrs. Jérôme-Forget takes advantage of the widespread panic to cut deeply into income stabilization programs. But that’s a whole other story, maybe even some unfounded speculation that will undoubtedly be the subject of a future article.

In the meantime, I wish you all a wonderful winter.